A new scenario study by the Baltic Defense Initiative and noted by Defense News suggests that Russia could, under extreme conditions, force the Baltic states into capitulation within 90 days without conventional ground invasion across borders.
The analysis, based in Vilnius, Lithuania, outlines a hypothetical future shaped by weakened NATO cohesion, depleted US military stockpiles following a prolonged Iran conflict, and political fragmentation in Europe.
"On Day 90, Moscow issues an ultimatum: all three Baltic states accept Russian occupation — or Riga and Tallinn are next," the Baltic Defense Initiative report states.
It describes a sequence of mass missile and drone strikes, including the use of large-scale unmanned systems, aimed at disabling critical infrastructure and government continuity in Lithuania, as well as neighboring Baltic countries.
The report assumes a broader geopolitical breakdown in which allied deterrence structures weaken significantly, including hypothetical political shifts in Western Europe that reduce collective defense commitments.
However, the scenario is explicitly theoretical and based on extrapolated capabilities and trends rather than an assessment of current military intent. Yet, very interesting if you wan to take a closer look: Go!
