Xbox is lying about 2026

Phil Spencer ended last year's Xbox Game Showcase by hyping up 2026 with the following message:

"I'm excited to share that players will get to celebrate 25 years of Xbox with a new Fable, the next Forza, Gears of War: E-Day, and the return of a classic that's been with us since the beginning".

It has since been confirmed that the obvious tease at the end was for Halo: Campaign Evolved, so it's understandable that Xbox Game Studios wants to celebrate the 25th anniversary for Microsoft's first console in an impressive way. The problem is that there's no doubt in my mind that they'll fail to live up to both their own and our expectations.

Last week's Xbox Developer_Direct was definitely great, as both Forza Horizon 6 and Fable looked really fun. They might actually be so amazing that Playground has two clear game of the year candidates in their hands. Forza Horizon 6 is set to launch for real on the 19th of May, and the last three games in the series have a 90+ rating on Metacritic, which makes me think this trip to Japan will be a big success both commercially and critically. My main reasons for concern start in the second half of the year.

Are you actually telling me that Fable, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, Halo: Campaign Evolved, and Gears of War: E-Day will all launch in the last six months of 2026? Especially after hearing Xbox Game Studios head Craig Duncan say their new games will have more room to breathe by not launching them on top of each other or other big games from PlayStation and third-party studios...Don't make me laugh.

Halo: Combat Evolved will be 25 years old on the 15th of November, so the original plan was without a doubt to launch it around that time. Around two weeks after the expected launch of this year's Call of Duty and a few days before Grand Theft Auto VI. A remake of Xbox' most iconic character and franchise sharing the spotlight and sales numbers with what's still (even after a serious decline the last few years) the most famous first-person shooter in the world and the sequel to what's claimed to be the highest grossing media title of all time. Sounds like a great idea. "No problem. Just forget about the anniversary and launch it September or early in October," you say? Then where would Fable (officially set to launch somewhere between September and December) and Gears of War: E-Day go?

That's without even mentioning Marvel's Wolverine, EA Sports FC 27, Tomb Raider: Legacy of Atlantis, Far Cry 7, Hades II coming to PS5 and Xbox Series and third-party games they might even have a partnership with. This fall might not have many dated games in it right now, but that's mostly because many publishers and developers are waiting until the very last moment to see if GTA 6 actually makes it this year or not. Rockstar's outstandingly anticipated game is definitely the one everyone is talking the loudest about, but this also means that other massive games are fighting for the aforementioned oxygen remaining the weeks and months leading up to the 19th of November. Having four of those games coming from Xbox doesn't exactly help. Top that with Microsoft making its disappointment with the gaming division clear by stating it outright and laying off thousands of employees every year, and it's safe to say Xbox Game Studios can't afford to have big misses in 2026. This brings me to why I'm not more specific in my headline.

Because I'm not sure if Xbox will decide to lie to us gamers or their developers. Launching Fable, Halo: Campaign Evolved, Gears of War: E-Day and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 on top of each other and other big games from other companies (including GTA 6) will make them keep their promise to us in terms of quantity, but will definitely lead to even more lay-offs. Data and many surveys show that the large majority of people buy very few games each year. The American Market research company Circana's senior director Mat Piscatella even stated in September that 63% of all US gamers buy a maximum of two games a year. Good luck with your six big games then, Xbox.

Nothing to worry about when millions of gamers will just buy the other games on sale months later...Games selling a lot months and years later isn't as common anymore unless they're called GTA V, Hogwarts Legacy or The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt. Just look at Monster Hunter: Wilds selling 1 million copies the last 10 months after selling 10 million its first month.

Let me put it on the edge and share a conspiracy theory based on this already long explanation. The only reason why Xbox would launch Fable, Halo: Campaign Evolved, Gears of War: E-Day and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 this year is that they know one or more of them will fail to meet expectations by getting in the low 80s or below on Metacritic and selling much worse that expected. They couldn't ask for a better year to do so, because they can just downplay it a bit to investors by claiming everyone bought and played GTA 6, and that things will be much better when people are ready for new games and the new Xbox in 2027 or 2028 (if they decide to push it because of how much RAM and other components cost these days).

My money is on Fable or Gears of War: E-Day being delayed, though. Xbox wouldn't dare to delay Call of Duty, and the launch of Halo: The Master Chief Collection proves that a somewhat lacklustre remake of Halo wouldn't mean the end of the franchise. Fable shows great promise, so people would let Playground polish it a bit more. Gears of War missing its 20th anniversary wouldn't be as bad as a remake of Halo not making its 25th either, and it's more important that the sequel to a Gears 5 that - to put it mildly - divided the fanbase delivers and doesn't see its multiplayer lobbies emptied when GTA 6 launches. Long story short: Xbox is lying to us and/or its developers about how amazing 2026 will be, and they know it. Many of the games launching this year will either kill their franchises by being really bad, so okay that they are forgotten within weeks or they'll be delayed to 2027.

Don't forget to throw this in my face in December if I'm wrong, because I hope I am. I'm just 100 % sure that I won't be...