Which team has more chances of winning Champions League according to Opta statistics, revised after draw

The Champions League round of 16 draw took place on Friday. We now know the path for each team to the final in Munich on May 31, and the draw brought different luck to teams like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, and PSG. In fact, some blockbuster round of 16 matches include Real Madrid vs. Atleti and Liverpool vs. PSG, four of the favourite teams for the trophy.

We know football is unpredictable, but according to statistics, not all clubs have the same chances. In fact, the Opta supercomputer has revised their calculations after the draw, with some teams increasing or lowering their chances to win the cup as much as 3%.

This is how British analyst Opta predicts Champions League 2024/25 will go, by chances of winning in the final:

• Liverpool: 17.2%


• Barcelona: 15.4%


• Arsenal: 13.6


• Inter: 12.7%


• Real Madrid: 11.6%


• PSG: 8.8%


• Bayer Leverkusen: 5.8%


• Bayern Munich: 4.8%


• Atlético de Madrid: 2.9%


• Lille: 1.4%


• Benfica: 1.1%


• Aston Villa: 1.0%


• Borussia Dortmund: 0.8%


• Club Brugge: 0.7%


• Feyenoord: 0.6%

Opta still believes Liverpool to be the favourite to win the title. However, after being paired with another strong team as PSG in the round of 16, and possibly facing Real Madrid, Atleti or Arsenal in the semi-final, Liverpool's chances fall 3%, while Barça's chances (paired with Benfica) rise 2.7%.

Arsenal is the team that has fallen the most, 3.2% lower chance: their path to their first Champions League include a relatively easy PSV, but then one Madrid team in quarter-finals, and possibly Liverpool in semis.