What are the chances my team qualifies for Champions League's next round? Here's what data has to say

UEFA has debuted a new format for Champions League this year. This allows more teams to participate (36 instead of 32) and adds more games with a brand-new knockout phase before the round of 16, that features teams that finish from 9th to 24th place in the new League Phase that replaces a Group Stage.

So far, all teams have crossed the halfway point of the League Phase, and pieces are starting to get into place.

Five teams are unbeaten and have the highest chances of finishing among the top 8 (which would save them the knockout phase) and five teams have lost all of their games, giving them very little hope to survive (those who finish 25-36 will be fully eliminated, with no Europa League safety net).

However, in the four matchdays remaining, almost anything can happen. That is according to Opta, a data analytical firm that has predicted how many points a team needs to qualify for the next round.

How many points are necessary to qualify for Champions League knockout phase

With no precedents, some fans have been worrying since the start of the competition how many points do their teams need to survive this phase. And, after running 50,000 simulations, the results says that 10 points will be enough to qualify in the top 24 places in 99% of the cases.

If your teams ends with 9 points, they would have 69% chances of making it into the top 24, but with just 8 points, chances are slim: 16%.

How many points are necessary to finish in the top eight?

The larger teams will probably aim for the hardest: to finish among the top 8, which would save them the first knockout phase. To finish among the very best, 16 points would be enough in 98% of simulations.

15 points would give them a 73% chance, so that's the figure some of the biggest teams in Europe are probably thinking of right now.

Teams like Manchester City, Juventus, Arenal, Bayern, Real Madrid, Milan and Atlético de Madrid have seven or six points. With twelve points still at stake, chances are they will qualify for the knockout phase, but earning one of the eight best seats of the table will be a very tough battle... and goal average will probably be very important to untie.