Pep Guardiola believes Manchester City has a "1%" chance of beating Real Madrid, but is that true?

The second leg of the Real Madrid-Manchester City Champions League play-off takes place this Wednesday, and Madrid has a clear edge, having won 2-3 at the Etihad Stadium, and playing the second leg at the Bernabéu. Pep Guardiola's team will visit a few days after thrashing Newcastle 4-0 and clinging to the fourth place of the Premier League, with a hat-trick by one of their latest signings, Omar Marmoush.

However, Guardiola isn't too optimistic. He acknowledges that this victory helps, "of course it's better to travel to Madrid with this result", but "the margin to win at the Bernabeu from that position, everybody knows the percentage to go through is 1%. Or I don't know what, but it will be minimal."

But, what is the actual percentage of a victory for Manchester City against Real Madrid at the Bernabéu? According to the Opta supercomputer, Man City has a 28.6% chance of winning the game (during the first 90 minutes), but with an unfavourable result, they would have to win in extra time. Their actual chances of winning the knockout play-off are 21.8%, while Real Madrid has 78.2% chances of reaching the round of 16. This is made using historical and team performances, after thousands of simulations.

Of course, computers can say anything, but football is different. Opta also thought Man City was favourite to win at the Etihad in the first leg (42.7% victory, while Madrid had a 33% and a draw was 24.3%).