There have been so many speculations and rumours regarding Grand Theft Auto VI going around, but almost none of them have been based on anything we can verify. Now, however, we might have received at least an indication of when to expect the next instalment in the series - and that is 2023.
It is VentureBeat that has noted that Take-Two has made a 10-K SEC filing (a way to prevent insider trader advantages) about spending $89 million on marketing for the fiscal year 2023 (which ends on March 31 of 2024). That is more than twice the amount that Rockstar usually spends on marketing, and there really aren't a whole lot of games that can motivate marketing for those obscene numbers.
Stephens analyst Jeff Cohen points out that the Red Dead Redemption 2 release could be spotted by the same method and says:
"We are not sure how much we should be reading into this shift, but we would note that this disclosure accurately predicted the launch of Red Dead Redemption 2 prior to that game's announcement. [Take-Two management] has spoken very confidently about the pipeline over the next five years and existing live services execution has been excellent. However, the timing of the next Grand Theft Auto remains top-of-mind for investors, particularly with the stock near all-time-highs."
It's worth pointing out this is also in line with what top analysts and insiders have said previously. Michael Pachter from Wedbush Securities said in January Grand Theft Auto VI would be released in 2022 at the very earliest, and Kotaku's ex-editor Jason Schreier posted a massive article last month where he claimed the game was far from finished.
Update: In a note sent to GamesIndustry, a Take-Two rep confirmed that the marketing commitments originally cited related to third-party companies. Given that Rockstar is an internal studio, that would suggest the assumptions made above and elsewhere are incorrect. On the other hand, with such an increased marketing budget, it certainly sounds like the company has big plans for 2023. We await more news with interest.