Climate models for these months had already predicted a particularly severe El Niño event in Oceania, but its occurrence affects and is directly linked to other climatic phenomena occurring around the world, one of which is the drought in India. The country and the Asian subcontinent have experienced a particularly dry June, having recorded the fifth driest June on record since records began in 1901. The monsoon is expected to begin this July, but rainfall is set to be lower this time round, which has set alarm bells ringing in the country.
According to reports by Reuters, the monsoon provides 70 per cent of annual water reserves to replenish water sources and supply agriculture, a $4,000 million industry that provides direct employment and a livelihood for half of India's population.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that monsoon rainfall in July will be less than 94 per cent of the long-term average. This typically occurs in years affected by El Niño. In the past, India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El Niño years, which has at times led to severe droughts that destroyed crops and forced the authorities to restrict exports of certain cereals.
Despite the precarious situation, farmers are still hoping to be able to plant their summer crops (rice, cotton, maize, and soya), provided the rains increase in the coming days, as forecast by the meteorological service.