The conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has not only brought economic instability to virtually every nation in the world, but may also have triggered a political and social crisis in the Middle Eastern country that could take years to stabilise, even if the conflict were to end today.
Since the 1979 Revolution, Iran has been an absolutist republic in which ultimate and unchallenged power rested with the figure of the Ayatollah, in this case, and until two months ago, Khamenei. But following his assassination on the first day of the conflict and the rise of his son—who was also seriously wounded shortly afterwards—this government has mutated into an oligarchy of senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, who are the ones actually directing the country's policy. According to information gathered by Reuters, this clique of senior commanders from the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the office of the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are now the ones devising strategies for resuming (or not) negotiations with the United States, as well as diplomatic and military actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
According to a Pakistani government official, referring to the peace talks between Iran and the United States in which Pakistan has been mediating, he said the following: "Apparently, there is no unified command structure for decision-making. Sometimes, it takes them between two and three days to respond."
The current leader, Mojtaba, owes his rise to the Revolutionary Guard, which backed him as a champion of its hard-line agenda. Already strengthened by the war, the Revolutionary Guard's growing hegemony points to a more aggressive foreign policy and harsher internal repression. Driven by revolutionary Islamism and a security-first worldview, they see their mission as preserving the Islamic Republic domestically whilst projecting a deterrent influence abroad.