Arsenal and Manchester City are in a two-horse race for the Premier League title, and the 2-1 victory of Guardiola's side at the Etihad means that, if both teams were to win all of their upcoming matches (five for Arsenal, six for City) they would finish the league with the same amount of points.
Arsenal have topped the table for the vast majority of the season and are still the leaders, but their nine-point lead was reduced to three (with City having a game in hand) in only a week. And the recent win/loss ratio of both teams in all competitions suggests that Manchester City is in better shape to win more games in the last weeks, with Arsenal having the added pressure of the Champions League semi-finals with Atleti over the next two weeks.
But in a scenario where they would win all of their games, or any other combination so that they finish the league with the same points, the league would be awarded to the team with better Goal Difference (goals scored minus goals received).
Currently, they are incredibly close in that regard, too: Arsenal has a slightly better Goal Difference of 37, after 63 goals scored and 26 goals against. City has a GD of 36, with 65 goals scored, 29 goals against, but with a game in hand. If Manchester City were to win that delayed game from Matchday 31 against Crystal Palace 1-0 (still with no date), they would have the same points AND same goal difference!
Other Premier League tie-breakers:
In the unlikely scenario that two teams finish the Premier League with same points and same goal difference, the title would be awarded to the team with more goals scored. Currently, Arsenal has scored 63 goals, but City has scored more, 65 goals.
In the even more unlikely scenario that they would tie in the same categories, the title would go to the team with the better head-to-head record. And City would win in that scenario, after the 2-1 victory at home last Sunday, and the 1-1 draw at Arsenal's Emirates Stadium in September 2025. But if Arsenal had won that match, the title would be decided by away goals in those head-to-head matches.
The last time a Premier League title was decided by goal difference was in 2011/12, when Manchester City beat Manchester United with 89 points, but a goal difference of 8. Who do you think will win Premier League 2025/26?