Orban has a habit of making himself the most difficult person in the room. At a summit in Brussels on Thursday, we will see what happens.
European leaders are expected to confront the Hungarian Prime Minister over his blockade of the 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine, agreed by all 27 EU leaders in December and frozen by Orban last month. Kyiv is expected to run short of money within weeks. The pressure on Orban to back down is significant, and growing.
His stated reason is a pipeline. The Druzhba pipeline carried Russian oil through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia until it was damaged by a Russian attack in January. Ukraine says repairs will take time. Orban says the pipeline is ready to operate now and is using the dispute as leverage. "No oil deliveries? No money. It's that simple," he posted on X on Tuesday.
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What makes this particularly infuriating to other EU leaders is that Orban had already secured a favourable deal. Hungary, along with the Czech Republic and Slovakia, negotiated an opt-out from paying for the costs of the loan before agreeing to it in December. He got a concession, signed on, and then blocked implementation anyway.
"In December, we took a political decision at the level of the European Council. Now is the time to deliver," says Nikos Christodoulides, Cypriot President.
This week, Zelensky agreed to fix the pipeline with EU technical help and funding. Other leaders are expected to point to that agreement at Thursday's summit and press Orban to remove his objection. Whether that will be enough is another question. Orban is in the middle of a tough re-election campaign at home, maintains warm ties with Russia, and has built a political identity around defying the European mainstream.
The stakes go beyond Ukraine's finances. If a decision agreed at the highest level of EU leadership can be unilaterally blocked by one member state after the fact, the credibility of the European Council itself is in question. That is what is really on the table in Brussels on Thursday, alongside the money.
<social>https://x.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/2034374124840104379?s=20</social>