Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, the most repeated Champions League knockout of the last decade, as part of the Champions League round of 16, returns this season, fifth time in a row that these two teams meet in a knockout stage of the competition.
A pass for quarter-finals is at stake, and while neither team is at their best form compared to their dominance years ago, Manchester City has been given a big favouritism this time. Real Madrid will have to play without seven players, including five that are usually starters: Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Dani Ceballos, Álvaro Carreras, Eder Militao, and David Alaba.
The long list of big injuries, that has forced manager Arbeloa to pick many players from their reserve team, helps Manchester City hold a 45.5% chance of beating Real Madrid tonight at the Bernabéu, according to Opta Analyst. Madrid is given 29.9% chances of winning, and gives 24.6% chance of a draw.
Overall in the full knockout, Manchester City is given 69% chances of making into quarter-finals, and 11.1% chance of winning the competition, fourth best of the last 16. Real Madrid is only given 1.9% of winning Champions League this year (Arsenal is given nearly 30% chance of winning the cup this year thanks to their easy path to the final).
Recent history of the "modern European classic" between Real Madrid and Manchester City
In 2015/16, Real Madrid eliminated Manchester City in the semifinals 1-0 on aggregate and went on to win the Champions League.
In 2019/20, Manchester City eliminated Real Madrid 4-2 on aggregate in the Round of 16.
In 2021/22, Madrid eliminated Manchester City in semifinals with a 6-5 score on aggregate, and went on to win the Champions League.
In 2022/23, Man City eliminated Madrid 5-1 in semifinals on aggregate and went on to win the Champions League.
In 2023/24, Madrid eliminated Man City 4-4 (penalties) in quarterfinals, and went on to win the Champions League.
In 2024/25, Madrid eliminated Manchester City 6-3 in the knockout phase play-offs.
Last December, Manchester City defeated Real Madrid 2-1 in a league phase match. Now, they face off again in the 2025/26 round of 16. Who do you think will pass this time?