Lithuania's intelligence service says Russia is expanding military units along NATO's borders and giving them combat experience in Ukraine, potentially preparing them for future conflict with the alliance. The annual assessment warned Moscow could be ready for a large-scale conventional war with NATO within about six years if sanctions are lifted.
The report said Russia could rebuild its armed forces into one 30-50% larger than before the war in Ukraine, while restoring weapons and ammunition reserves. It added that Moscow's defence industry has ramped up production with help from China, reducing reliance on Western technology.
Officials also warned Russian sabotage activity in Europe is becoming increasingly dangerous, though they said several recent outages involving Baltic Sea cables and pipelines were likely accidental rather than deliberate. Lithuania, which borders Russia and Belarus, remains one of Ukraine's strongest supporters within the EU and NATO.