The Champions League draw that took place on Friday not only defined the round of 16 fixtures for March, but also all the potential rivals each team will face on their way to the final. That is also big information, as some teams have clearly been more lucky than others in how the Champions League bracket has been decided:
Of course, anything can happen... but experts and analysts are already deciding who is favourite to win Champions League in 2026 depending not only on their strengths, but on the strength or weakness of their rivals... and Arsenal is a clear winner, according to a quick study made by Opta.
After the draw was made, Opta analysed the projected rivals for every team, and has found that Arsenal is the big favourite, with nearly 28% chances of winning Champions League this year. That's almost twice as the second favourite, Bayern Munich.
Meanwhile, last year's winner, Paris Saint-Germain, is given less than five per cent chance, and European giants like Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Chelsea are also given dramatically low chances compared to the North London team.
Teams with more chances of winning Champions League 2025/26:
This the updated list of likelihood to win Champions League 2025/26, according to Opta (via BBC):
Arsenal - 27.40%
Bayern Munich - 14.28%
Liverpool - 12.83%
Man City - 10.79%
Barcelona - 7.72%
Chelsea - 6.86%
Newcastle - 4.66%
Paris St-Germain - 4.64%
Real Madrid - 2.78%
Sporting - 2.73%
Atletico Madrid - 2.00%
Tottenham - 1.22%
Atalanta - 1.06%
Bayer Leverkusen - 0.47%
Bodo/Glimt - 0.39%
Galatasaray - 0.17%
Arsenal, placed in the blue path, will face Bayer Leverkusen in round of 16, and if they win, they would face Bodo/Glimt or Sporting CP in quarter-finals, theoretically three of the weakest teams. The only big challenge would be semifinals, where the strongest team they could face is Barcelona, Atlético, Tottenham, or Newcastle.
What do you think of this update of chances of winning Champions League? Do you think Arsenal will finally claim their first European Cup this year?
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