Russia is expected to continue its invasion of Ukraine throughout 2026, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The thinktank said there is "little indication" Moscow's ability to wage war is diminishing, noting defence spending of $186 billion in 2025, equivalent to 7.3% of GDP, more than double the US share and roughly triple the UK's. Analysts highlighted that while Russia's economy is slowing, years of military growth allow continued investment in equipment and recruitment for relentless ground and air attacks.
Russia's recruitment is increasingly drawing from lower-quality pools, including individuals with health or substance issues, and casualties remain high, over 30,000 per month according to UK estimates. Despite these strains, the Kremlin retains the capacity to adjust operational tempo and avoid overwhelming losses, though further mobilization could risk social unrest similar to September 2022.
The IISS also flagged Russia's modernisation of drones and missiles, including the Shahed-136 capable of striking Europe up to 2,000 km away. This also highlights NATO's urgent need to strengthen missile defence and anti-drone systems, though achieving the necessary long-term defence spending would require difficult trade-offs for European allies, with military dependence on the US likely persisting well into the 2030s, according to the report...