An excruciating tropical disease known as chikungunya could now be transmitted across most of Europe, according to a new study. Researchers found that rising temperatures linked to climate change have lowered the threshold for virus transmission by the invasive Asian tiger mosquito, allowing infections to occur for more months of the year, including up to two months in south-east England.
The virus, first identified in Tanzania in 1952, causes severe joint pain that can last for months or even years and can be fatal in vulnerable groups. Large outbreaks struck France and Italy in 2025, with more than 800 cases reported in France alone. Scientists say Europe is warming at roughly twice the global average rate, accelerating the northward spread of the mosquito species responsible for transmission.
The study, published in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface, found the minimum temperature for transmission is between 13C and 14C, significantly lower than previous estimates. That means parts of Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece could face more than six months of potential transmission each year, with several central and western European countries at risk for three to five months annually.
Experts warn that without stronger mosquito control, outbreaks are likely to grow larger as winters become milder and no longer act as a natural "firebreak." While costly vaccines exist, public health officials stress that preventing mosquito breeding and avoiding bites remain the most effective protections...