For the first time in more than half a century, the United States and Russia are approaching a world without formal limits on their nuclear arsenals. The New START treaty, a pillar of nuclear arms control since 2010, expires this Thursday, leaving both countries without legally binding caps on deployed strategic warheads. As tensions simmer between Moscow and the West, and global leaders weigh the risks of unrestrained nuclear competition, questions are mounting: What does the expiration mean for global security? How are the United States, Russia, and other nuclear powers responding? And could this trigger a new nuclear arms race? Here's everything you need to know.
What is the New START treaty?
The New START treaty was designed to cap long-range nuclear weapons and provide transparency between the United States and Russia. Signed in 2010, it limited each country to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and set rules for intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and heavy bombers. Beyond numbers, the treaty included verification measures to monitor compliance and foster trust. Its expiration on February 5 removes these limits, potentially altering decades of nuclear diplomacy and raising questions about the stability of the global nuclear order.
Russia's position: Ready for a new reality
Russia has said it is prepared for life without the treaty. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who oversees arms control, described the approaching expiration as a "new moment, a new reality." Speaking from Beijing, he emphasized that Moscow will not be provoked into a new arms race, despite the modernization of its nuclear triad, which includes ground-, air-, and submarine-based weapons. Ryabkov also warned that if the US deploys missile defence systems in strategic locations like Greenland, Russia would need to take military measures to protect its security.
US response and the risk of an arms race
The United States has indicated it will allow New START to lapse. Former President Barack Obama, who signed the treaty with then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, warned Congress that letting the treaty expire could spark a new nuclear arms race. "Letting the treaty expire would wipe out decades of diplomacy and make the world less safe," Obama said. Experts echo this concern, noting that the lapse removes both limits on warheads and the mechanisms to verify nuclear intentions, undermining trust between the two largest nuclear powers.
Global concerns and the role of China
The treaty's expiration comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The US has suggested that China, the world's third-largest nuclear power, join future arms control discussions. So far, Beijing has declined, with Russia stating publicly that it respects China's position. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that a lapse without follow-up agreements could accelerate the Doomsday Clock...
What comes next?
With New START set to expire, the world faces unprecedented uncertainty. Both Russia and the US retain large arsenals without formal caps. While Moscow insists it will act responsibly, the absence of treaty constraints leaves open the possibility of accelerated nuclear modernization and, potentially, a renewed arms race. As February 5 approaches, diplomats are under pressure to find last-minute solutions. The expiration of New START marks a pivotal moment in global nuclear relations, one that could shape strategic calculations for decades to come...