Nearly four years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the combined number of soldiers killed, wounded or missing on both sides could approach two million by this spring, according to a new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The Washington-based thinktank estimates Russian forces have suffered around 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths, while Ukrainian losses are put at close to 600,000. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv publishes full casualty figures, and the Kremlin dismissed the report as unreliable, insisting only Russia's defence ministry can release official data.
CSIS argues the scale of losses is extraordinary by any historical standard, noting that Russian fatalities in Ukraine far exceed those suffered in the Soviet war in Afghanistan and the Chechen conflicts combined. While Russian casualties are estimated to outnumber Ukrainian losses by roughly two to one, the impact on Ukraine is particularly severe given its smaller population and more limited ability to sustain prolonged mobilisation. Russia has offset losses with high pay, generous enlistment bonuses and foreign recruits, while Ukraine continues to struggle to refill depleted units amid domestic resistance to lowering the mobilisation age.
Despite the human cost, the report suggests battlefield gains remain marginal. Since 2024, Russian advances have slowed to tens of metres per day in major offensives, with winter conditions and Ukrainian resistance further stalling progress. Recent peace talks involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States failed to produce a breakthrough, leaving the war locked in a costly stalemate as casualties continue to mount on both sides...