Europe has swapped one energy dependency for another, replacing Russian gas with heavy reliance on liquified natural gas (LNG) shipments from the United States, a new study has found (via The Guardian). The shift has left both the EU and the UK increasingly exposed to political pressure from US President Donald Trump at a time of rising transatlantic tensions.
According to research by the Clingendael Institute, the Ecologic Institute and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, imports of US LNG into the European Economic Area jumped 61% in 2025 and are nearly five times higher than in 2019. US gas now accounts for almost 60% of EU LNG imports, while the UK relies on American shipments for more than two-thirds of its LNG supply.
The authors warn that this dependence carries risks as Trump openly embraces an "energy dominance" strategy that treats exports as a tool of national power. Trump has recently threatened tariffs on European allies over disputes including Greenland, underscoring concerns that energy supplies could be used as leverage. "We have to acknowledge the new reality of American energy dominance," said Prof Kacper Szulecki, one of the study's authors.
With EU gas reserves currently at their lowest levels in years, experts caution that a cold winter combined with political tensions could drive up prices sharply. "If we have a cold winter and worsening relations with the United States, we could see a serious energy crisis in the coming months," Szulecki wans.
The report concludes that Europe has few short-term alternatives but argues that the long-term solution lies in accelerating investment in domestic renewable energy. Without it, researchers say, gas exports will continue to function as a powerful instrument of geopolitical influence...