An anonymous crypto gambler pocketed more than $436,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, placing the wager shortly before United States President Donald Trump publicly confirmed the operation. The perfectly timed trade is now fueling suspicions that someone may have profited from advance knowledge of the highly sensitive United States military action.
The bet was made on Polymarket (via BBC), a blockchain-based prediction platform where users wager on political and global events. A newly created account risked roughly $32,500 on Maduro being out of power by the end of January. Hours later, Trump announced that Maduro was in United States custody, turning the long-shot gamble into a massive payday.
<social>https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/2007492066301849854?s=20</social>
Market data shows that expectations of Maduro's removal were extremely low on Friday, hovering near 6%, before jumping sharply late at night and surging again just before the announcement. That sudden shift suggests traders abruptly changed their positions as if new information had surfaced.
Financial watchdogs say the pattern is troubling. "This has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," says Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets (via BBC). What do you think about this information? Inside information or lucky day? Let us know in the comments below.