Carlos Alcaraz's second victory in the ATP Finals round robin yesterday meant he is nearing qualification for semi-finals for the second time in his career (he missed 2022 due to injury and was eliminated in the group stage in 2024; in 2023 he lost to eventual winner Djokovic in semi-finals).
The victory of Lorenzo Musetti over Alex de Miñaur later that evening meant that all four players from the group have still mathematical options to qualify, although Alcaraz, the only one to have won the first two, is in the best position to do it.
In fact, ATP has calculated all possible qualification scenarios for the Jimmy Connors group, and Alcaraz would be eliminated in only one scenario. All of them, of course, involve losing to Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday, but only if it's by two sets (without Alcaraz winning a set).
If Lorenzo Musetti defeats Carlos Alcaraz, regardless of the score, but Alex de Miñaur defeats Taylor Fritz, Musetti would win the group and Alcaraz would still qualify as second. The only danger for Alcaraz comes if Taylor Fritz defeats De Muñaur AND Musetti defeats Alcaraz in two sets.
Even in the case that Musetti defeats Alcaraz, if Alcaraz manages to win a set, he would still qualify, regardless of the result from the Fritz/De Miñaur match. In fact, Alcaraz would still qualify as group winner with a defeat in three sets to Musetti if Fritz defeats De Miñaur in three sets.
In other words, the moment Alcaraz wins a set against Musetti, he will know he is qualified for the semi-finals, regardless of what happens next. However, Alcaraz will go for the win, as winning tomorrow will mean that he will finish the year as World No. 1, even if Sinner ends up winning the competition...
ATP Finals matches times for Thursday, November 13:
Taylor Fritz vs. Alex de Miñaur: 14:00 CET
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti: 20:30 CET
This is the order of games for the Jimmy Connors group in ATP Finals tomorrow. Do you think Alcaraz will end up receiving the crown for year's end World No. 1?