Germany's top operations commander has warned that Russia has the capacity to carry out a small-scale attack against NATO territory at any time, though such a move would depend on the alliance's posture and deterrence efforts.
"If you look at Russia's current capabilities and combat power, it could kick off a small, quick, regionally limited attack as early as tomorrow," Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank tells Reuters in a new interview. "Nothing big. Russia is too tied down in Ukraine for that."
Sollfrank, who leads Germany's joint operations command, says that despite heavy losses on the ground in Ukraine, Russia's air, nuclear and missile forces remain largely intact, while its military continues to expand. Moscow, he notes, aims to increase troop numbers to 1.5 million soldiers and still possesses enough tanks to make a limited strike conceivable.
"A Russian attack is in the realm of the possible"
The general stresses that whether the Kremlin would act depends on three factors: its strength, military track record, and leadership. "These lead me to conclude that a Russian attack is in the realm of the possible. Whether it happens depends to a large extent on our own behaviour," he says, referring to NATO's deterrence posture.
Sollfrank also links recent drone incursions to Moscow's wider hybrid warfare tactics, describing them as part of a "non-linear" approach designed to intimidate and test NATO's defenses before resorting to conventional force. "Russia's aim is to provoke, to foster insecurity and to test our response," he says.
The comments come as Germany increases defense spending to meet NATO's 3.5% target by 2029 and expands its armed forces to around 260,000 troops, part of a broader shift toward reinforcing collective defense across Europe. What do you think about these comments?