When Carlos Alcaraz announced that he would miss the Shanghai Masters to recover from his ankle injury in Tokyo, Jannik Sinner realised that he had the opportunity to recapture World No. 1 at hand. In order to do so, he would have to win basically every tournament, starting from Shanghai Masters, where he defended 1000 points from last year.
Unfortunately, he suffered cramps in his right thigh and withdrew from the match against Tallon Griekspoor after more than two and a half hours. As a result, he will only win 50 points from the tournament, losing 950 and dropping to exactly 10,000 ATP points by next Monday, October 13. Meanwhile, Alcaraz will lose 200 points and will have 11,340 next Monday.
What happens next? Both players are among the six invited to Saudi Arabia for the Six Kings Slam, which does not count for ATP points, it is an exhibition tournament... with a lot of money involved. More than a Grand Slam, for as many as three matches. Then, Sinner has confirmed his presence at the Vienna Open, between October 20-26. If the Italian wins the tournament, one that he missed in 2024 but won in 2023 (and Alcaraz doesn't go, as it is expected), Sinner could cut the distance to as much as 840 points.
How many points do Alcaraz and Sinner defend after Vienna?
Carlos Alcaraz only defends 300 points, 100 from the Paris Masters in early November, and 200 from the Nitto ATP Finals late December.
Jannik Sinner defends 1,500 points, none from Paris, and all of them from winning the Nitto ATP Finals last year.
In the case Jannik Sinner wins in Vienna, and then wins Paris Masters and Nitto ATP Finals, all three competitions, Alcaraz would still secure the World No. 1 at the end of the year if he reaches the Paris final, even before the ATP Finals take place.
Of course, even if Sinner manages to win ATP Finals (taking place again in his home turf, Turin), Alcaraz would still be able to secure World No. 1 if he wins some matches of the Finals.
In the case Sinner wins in Vienna and Paris, and Alcaraz would reach semi-finals in Paris, one single victory during the group stage of the finals (there are three matches before semi-finals) would suffice Alcaraz for retaining the World No. 1 title at the end of the year.