Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz both claimed titles this week: the Italian in China and the Spaniard in Japan. Two 500 ATP titles without many major implications in the race for being World No. 1 in Tennis, because current World No. 1 Alcaraz dropped and immediately recovered the 500 points from China last year, while Sinner only added 170 points (he was finalist in China last year).
However, Carlos' announcement that he will not play the Shanghai Open due to his ankle injury opens the door for Sinner to regain the title of the World No. 1 sooner than some expected. It will not happen during the Shanghai Open (October 1-12), however: Alcaraz will drop 200 points, and Sinner will be defending 1,000 points from his victory last year. In the best case scenario for Sinner, he would retain those 1,000 points (if he wins Shanghai Masters again).
Currently, Alcaraz has 11,540 points, and Sinner has 10,950 points. After October 12, Alcaraz will drop to 11,340 points and Sinner, if he wins, would remain the same: 390 points behind Alcaraz.
Their first reunion will happen at the Six Kings Slam, a tournament in Riyadh that will feature Alcaraz and Sinner, but doesn't count for ATP rankings (it does offer a crazy amount of money, though). This Saudi Arabia tournament takes place between October 15-18. Last year, Sinner defeated Alcaraz and won the largest prize money ever in tennis.
Vienna, an unexpectedly key date for Sinner
After that, the first ATP tournament is Vienna Open between October 20-26. Neither of them took part in that ATP 500 tournament in 2024, meaning that, if Sinner (who won in 2023) takes part in it and wins it, and if Alcaraz does not participate in it, or gets a very early exit, Sinner would be able to take the crown again with 110 points more than Alcaraz.
It is not expected that Alcaraz will take part in the Austrian tournament, and thus, the big showdown would be the Paris Masters, last Masters 1000 of the year (between October 25 and November 2), where Alcaraz will drop 100 points and Sinner none.
In short, Alcaraz has secured the World No. 1 ranking until October 27 at the very least. Sinner has the option to take the crown only if he wins in Shanghai and Vienna, but his best chance would be Paris. After that, things look much more complicated for Sinner, as he will defend 1,500 points in the ATP Finals (November 9-16) while Alcaraz will only drop 200 points. Even if Sinner were to win the Finals again, Alcaraz would surely try to do better than last year (where he only won one match in the group stage) and he would increase the distance.
But let's take it step by step, as the Shanghai Open is underway, with Sinner expected to debut in second round on Friday. Djokovic could be waiting him in semi-finals...
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