Carlos Alcaraz lifted the trophy at Cincinnati Open, after playing just 23 minutes against Jannik Sinner, who felt ill and retired when he was losing 5-0. A bitter victory, yes, but one very valuable to Alcaraz, who had never lifted that trophy (he lost the 2023 final to Djokovic), and one that will have big implications in his race for World No. 1.
After this match, Sinner loses 1,200 ATP points (1,000 from Cincinnati, where he won in 2024, and 200 from Canadian Open, where he reached quarter-finals last year, but did not play this year). As he was finalist this year, he adds 650 points, so in total he loses 550 points, meaning that he currently has 11,480 points. Meanwhile, Alcaraz loses only 30 points from last year, and adds 1,000 points from Cincinnati. He ends up with 9,590 points, a difference of 1,890 points.
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But in the US Open, Sinner, winner last year, defends 2,000 points, while Alcaraz, who lost in second round in New York last year against Botic Van de Zandschulp, only defends 50. That means that Alcaraz would be World No. 1 again if he wins US Open.
Because points are dropped after the competition ends, Sinner will still be World No. 1. However, when taking only the "real" points, without counting those from last year, Alcaraz already leads over Sinner: Alcaraz has 9,540 points and Sinner has 9,480 points.
That means that whoever reaches further in the US Open, will be World No. 1, with Alcaraz having a slight advantage: if Sinner doesn't reach third round of the tournament, Alcaraz would be World No. 1 no matter what after the US Open. However, the most likely scenario is that both will reach further in the competition. A potential final between the two would be the dreamt match for many, as the winner would also be World No. 1...