Jannik Sinner's victory over Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon 2025, taking the Grand Slam that the Spaniard was defending from the two previous years, skyrocketed Sinner in the ATP ranking to 12,030 points, followed far behind by Alcaraz, second with 8,600 points. 3,430 points of difference sound like a lot, and certainly Sinner will be able to extend his stint as World No. 1 for a while, with 58 straight weeks and counting.
However, things may look different in a couple of months, during the hard court season leading up and including the US Open, taking place from August 24 to September 7, 2025. Last summer, the defeat against Novak Djokovic at Paris 2024 left to one of Alcaraz's worst stints (which included his first broken racket out of frustration of losing in the first round of Cincinnati to Monfils).
Three major tournaments are taking place this summer: two Masters 1,000, Canadian Open from July 26 to August 7; Cincinnati Open from August 5-18, and then the 2,000 points US Open between August 24 and September 7. Last year, Sinner dominated with victories in Cincinnati and the US Open, and despite a quarter-final exit from Canada by the Italian, he went on to win 3,2000 points in total... that he will have to defend this year.
Instead, Alcaraz will only be defending a mere 60 points (10 from his first-round exit from Cincinnati, 50 for his second round exit from the US Open against Botic van de Zandschulp). He has a lot to win, and he has proved that he can perform on hard courts, winning his maiden Grand Slam at the US Open 2022 and reaching the final in 2023 in Cincinnati.
This means that Alcaraz, while not able to catch on Sinner, could be able to close the gap enough so that he retakes World No. 1 at the ATP Finals in November, with 1,500 points at stake... which Sinner will also be defending.