Real Madrid is currently group leader at Group H, but not by a large margin. Tied with points with RB Salzburg, four, after a draw and a win. Al Hilal, with two consecutive draws, has 2 points, while Pachuca, with two defeats, it's eliminated.
That means that there are three teams to fight for two spots. Real Madrid and Salzburg are the best positioned, but they fight each other tonight (actually, on Friday at 2:00 AM BST, 3:00 AM CEST). All three have options to qualify... and to be eliminated.
For Real Madrid, the math is relatively easy. A win over Salzburg would be enough to qualify as group leaders. A draw with goals (1-1, 2-2) against Salzburg would be enough to qualify as group leaders.
Scenarios where Real Madrid doesn't qualify for round of 16:
Real Madrid would need to lose against Salzburg, and Al Hilal would need to win Pachuca. That would mean the Austrian club would be group leader with 7 points and Al Hilal runner ups with 5 points.
And what if Real Madrid draws with Salzburg? The good news for the whites is that there is not a scenario where Real Madrid would be eliminated with a draw. It would only change whether they qualify as group leaders or runner-ups.
A draw with goals (1-1, 2-2) means Madrid advances as group leaders
A 0-0 draw when Al Hilal does not beat Pachuca by three or more goals, or by a margin of two goals scoring at least four (5-3, 4-2) means Madrid is group leader
A 0-0 draw when Al Hilal beats Pachuca 3-1, or 4-2, 5-3... means Madrid is group runner-up
A 0-0 draw where Al Hilal beats Pachuca 3-1 and Real Madrid finishes below Al-Hilal on fair play ranking means Madrid passes as runner-ups
Even a loss against Salzburg if Al-Hilal draws or loses to Pachuca means Madrid goes as runner-ups
And, right now, there's not much difference, until Manchester City and Juventus play their match earlier today (20:00 BST, 21:00 CEST).
Real Madrid and Salzburg have already met this season, during the Champions League league stage, and Real Madrid thrashed them 5-1. The Austrian club ended up being one of the worst teams of the competition, only winning one match, losing all seven, and being 34th out of 36. However, they managed a draw against Al-Hilal, which in theory is a stronger team...