Who has higher chances of winning Europa League final, according to statistics: Manchester United or Tottenham?

The Europa League final is very even, but one team has slightly better chances, according to simulations.
Text: Javier Escribano
Published 2025-05-20

Europa League is the first of the three UEFA men's competitions to finish this season. Tomorrow night in San Mamés, Bilbao's stadium (sadly, Athletic Club was eliminated in semi-finals), two English teams will meet: Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur. Both have made some frankly mediocre season in the Premier League (16th United, 17th Tottenham, just above relegation), but have a chance to end the season with a huge triumph.

Manchester United this season is, probably, the worst United of all-time (quoting the man himself, Ruben Amorim, hired mid-season to course-correct). However, Manchester United is still Manchester United: they have won many more titles than Tottenham (their final trophy was the EFL Cup over Chelsea in 2008, same year that United won their final Champions League. Since then, United has won Europa League once (2017), FA Cup in 2016 and 2024, and EFL Cup in 2017 and 2023. United's last Premier League title came in 2012.

Manchester United has slightly less chances than Tottenham

Which of the two teams has more chances of lifting the trophy? Well, according to Opta, which analyses thousands of simulations, they believe that Tottenham as slightly higher chances: 50.3% vs. 49.7%. They also believe that there's a 27.3% chance that the match goes to extra time.

Who do you believe will win Europa League? The final will takes place on Wednesday, May 21, at 20:00 BST, 21:00 CEST.

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