An 8% chance. That is the sum that Opta analyst gives Real Madrid of defeating Arsenal tomorrow with at least 3 goals and qualifyinging for the Champions League semi-finals, after the heavy 3-0 defeat last Tuesday at the Emirates Stadium.
After doing thousands of simulations, Real Madrid gets the upper hand in the overall match result (a 54.8% chance of victory at the Santiago Bernabéu). However, Ancelotti's squad needs to overcome a 3-goal margin, so the result needs to be 4-0, or 3-0 and then hope to get lucky in penalties. A 1-0 or even a 2-0 would be enough for Mikel Arteta, who will likely play a more defensive game, knowing that they have only conceded 0.55 goals per game in the competition so far.
Real Madrid dreams of another magical comeback
Everyone, from the club and outside of it, know that the Real Madrid has a history of fighting back at their stadium. "At the Bernabéu special things happen for them", said