Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service (Danish: Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) issued a threat assessment this week, highlighting the growing risk of a large-scale military conflict between Russia and Europe within the next five years.
While the agency confirms that Denmark itself is not under immediate threat of a conventional attack, it cautioned that Greenland and the Faroe Islands are more vulnerable due to their strategic importance.
The intelligence assessment reveals that Russia has significantly modernised its military capacity and ramped up production, which could be used against NATO if the war in Ukraine comes to a halt or freezes.
While Russia's ambitions focus heavily on the region north of its mainland, including the North Pole, FE suggests that Denmark's territories in the North Atlantic may become an extension of Russia's broader geopolitical objectives.
Importantly, the intelligence service stressed that Greenland and the Faroe Islands hold more value for Russia in its strategic relations with the United States than with Europe, given their proximity to key North American defence routes and Arctic interests.
This dynamic could reduce the likelihood of direct military confrontation with Denmark, yet raise the stakes in the broader context of NATO's defence strategy. For now, it remains to be seen how this evolving military posture will influence the stability of Europe and its northern territories.