UEFA Champions League has wrapped up for 2024. Two more matchdays remain in January, and while some teams are mathematically confirmed in the top 8 (or eliminated), most places are still up to decide.
Many people know the difference between finishing in the top 8 or between 9-24. Those finishing in the top 8 wget direct qualification to the round of 16, avoiding a knockout, two-legged encounter between the teams finishing 9-24.
But, does it really matter the exact point your team ends between 1 and 8? Or, in other words, is it better to finish 1st or 2nd than 7th or 8th?
Yes, it does, and it is similar as the difference between finishing 9th or 10th or 23rd and 24th: it will determine whom your team will be seeded in the round of 16.
How pairings work in the round of 16 of Champions League
The main advantage is shared for all the top 8 teams: they will play the second leg of the round of 16 at home.
However, depending on their league position, they will be paired with different opponents from the knockout playoff:
1st and 2nd will clash with either the winner of the 17th vs. 18th knockout game, or the winner between 15th/16th knockout game.
So, using an example: currently, Sporting Lisboa and Feyenoord are 17th and 18th, and Benfica and Monaco are 15th and 16th. Those four teams will be paired in the knockout two-legged match (it can be either Sporting-Monaco and Feyenoord-Benfica, or Sporting-Benfica and Feyenoord-Monaco).
In the first case, let's take Sporting wins Monaco and Benfica beats Feyenoord. For the round of 16, it would be Sporting and Benfica vs. Liverpool and Barcelona, currently 1st and 2nd. It could be Liverpool-Sporting and Barcelona-Benfica, or Liverpool-Benfica and Barcelona-Sporting.
In short, these are the possible pairings each team will have:
1 and 2: 15 or 16, 17 or 18
3 and 4: 13 or 14, 19 or 20
5 and 6: 11 or 12, 21 or 22
7 and 8: 9 or 10, 23 or 24
So, is it really better to finish first than eighth?
In theory, if you're first or second you'd get better chances or playing against a team from the middle of the table, whereas if you finish seventh or eighth, you risk yourself of playing against one of the "better" teams, ninth or tenth, but you also get the chance of playing against one of the "worst" teams qualified, 23rd or 24th.
So, in reality, there is an advantage, but it is so relative that shouldn't realle be taken into account, specially if it mostly depends on the pairings and results of the knockout playoff, which is out of their control. If you're a Liverpool or Barcelona fan, whose qualification is (almost) mathematically secured, you shouldn't be too concerned it your teams ends up being fourth or fifth instead of first or second... aside from the pride, of course.