How would Champions League pairings be and who would be eliminated if the League Phase ended today

If Champions League ended today its League Phase, this is how the pairings would look like.
Text: Javier Escribano
Published 2024-12-12

Champions League has ended for the year. After matchweek six, there will be a long winter break for UEFA competitions before returning late January for the seventh and eighth matchweeked, which will be played on January 21-22 and Jan 28-29.

With the new format, each team plays eight games in the League Phase instead of six in the Group Phase, as it was traditional. As the format has changed, it is impossible to compare directly, but what would happen if this League Phase had ended yesterday, instead of January?

Everything has changed: the number of participant clubs (36 instead of 32) or the relegation proccess: there is no longer a Europa League spot consolation prize, but the number of teams that move to the next phase is larger: 24 out of 36 will still be playing UEFA games up until February with the new knockout system.

The eight teams that would automathically qualify for round of 16

Teams that finish between 1-8 will move to the traditional round of 16. The position they finish between first or eight does matter, as they would be paired with the teams that finish better from the previous knockout games they would avoid, as well as securing the second leg at home. Those teams are:


Liverpool
Barcelona
Arsenal
Leverkusen
Aston Villa
Inter
Stade Brestois
LOSC


The sixteen teams that will play knockout

The majority of teams will actually have to play two extra games in February. If they win, they would be seeded with the best eight. Loosing them would mean elimination.

Pairings also work depending on the positions: 8th and 9th would play against 23th and 24th, 11th and 12th would play against 18th and 19th, and so on. Also, finishing between 9 and 16 means playing the second leg of the knockout at home.

So, if the pairings would be made today, this is how it would look like:


Dortmund / Bayern vs. PSV /Dinamo Zagrev
Atlético Madrid / Milan vs. Celtic FC. / Manchester City
Atalanta / Juventus will face either Brugge / Real Madrid
Benfica / MONACO will face either Sporting Lisboa / Feyenoord


The twelve teams that would be eliminated

Finishing below 25th spot means elimination. And so far, three teams have 0 points, meaning their salvation is impossible. But the spots 24th, 25th and 26th are still in dispute, and will be decided in over a month.


PSG
Stuttart
Shakhtar
Sparta Praha
Sturm
Girona
Crvena Zvezda
RB Salzburg
Bolonia
Leipzig
Slovan Bratislava
Young Boys

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