The International - the biggest Dota 2 tournament on the planet - wrapped up last month as OG took the title, and Dota 2 educational service MoreMMR actually used AI to predict the matches in the competition, now explaining how this worked.
First they started off with a Match Analysis service that detects mistakes in users' matches, identifying 24 types of common mistake so the service could automatically find them in an event log of a game, giving recommendations to players based on this analysis. These recommendations take heroes, roles, and more into account, and show an estimation of how many percents the probability of winning decreased with the error.
Then there was the second service comparing MoreMMR's users to pro players, which was made for the Epicenter XL event in Moscow. This allowed users to upload a match, while MoreMMR would compare it with the pro players to give a result, and MoreMMR even analysed the top teams in The International, using 2,000 matches from official tournaments.
This was the foundation for the "forecast machine", which was learning to predict a winning probability based on several parameters, while users also did the same, as participation was free and prizes were on the line.
From the first day MoreMMR's predictions proved more accurate than that of competitors like Gosu, and before the last day they had guessed 12 matches right out of 20. In the final, however, they predicted Evil Geniuses to win the whole thing, which as you may know, proved wrong, meaning Gosu's AI came out with 14 right predictions, while MoreMMR stood at 12.
Now that MoreMMR has built this program, though, they can apply this to future tournaments, and for more on the service visit MoreMMR's official website. Do you think AI predictions can get to a stage where they're significantly better than humans?
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