Goldman Sachs sees Iran war cutting global GDP by 0.3% and raising inflation by up to 0.6%
Despite the downgrade, the bank sees the impact as relatively contained compared to past crises such as the pandemic.
Goldman Sachs expects the war involving Iran to shave around 0.3% off global GDP growth over the next year, while pushing inflation higher by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points. The bank's analysts point to surging oil and gas prices as the central driver behind this outlook, following the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.
The revised forecasts reflect a broader downgrade of the global economic outlook. Goldman Sachs now projects worldwide growth at 2.6%, down from a previous estimate of 2.9%, while inflation is expected to climb to around 2.9%.
Despite the downgrade, the bank sees the impact as relatively contained compared to past crises such as the pandemic. Unlike the widespread supply chain disruptions seen in recent years, the current shock is largely concentrated in the energy sector. With non-energy trade with Gulf countries accounting for only a small share of global commerce, Goldman Sachs believes the main risk lies in persistently high energy costs rather than a broader breakdown of global trade.
