Europa League teams with more chances of reaching round of 16, according to statistics

The next round of the UEFA Europa League takes place tonight: the first leg of the knockout play-off, a pre-round of 16 before the actual round of 16, with the teams that ranked in the middle of the League Phase table.

Teams like Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Lyon, Athletic Bilbao, and Lazio are waiting for the rivals, which will be decided in the two-legged play-off, starting today, Thursday February 13, and ending next week, February 20.

Football Meets Data, a data analyst providing football statistics, probabilities and simulations, have published which are the teams with more chances of winning this knock-out phase, based on a Elo rating system, that calculates the relative skill levels of teams. And, according to probabilities, the eight teams that will pass are:

• 67% Real Sociedad


• 66% Viktoria Plzen


• 62% Galatasaray


• 61% PAOK


• 61% Roma


• 60% Fenerbahçe


• 54% Twente


• 53% Ajax

On the other hand, these are the teams with lower chances of surviving this round, according to simulations based on previous results:

• 47% Union SG


• 46% Bodo/Glimt


• 40% Anderlecht


• 39% Porto


• 39% FCSB


• 38% AZ


• 34% Ferencvaros


• 33% Midtjylland

However, we know football usually is unpredictable. In a week, we will know which teams has passed, and how close were these predictions...