Climate change will make breaking marathon world records nearly impossible, says study
The ideal conditions for a runner to perform at their most optimal shape will become rarer and rarer, says NGO.
World records in marathon will become increasingly harder to break due to rising temperatures caused by climate change, a study by NGO Climate Central. It says that the optimal temperatures for running, 4°C/39ºF for men and 10°C/50°F for women, will become more unlikely to happen in 86% of 221 global marathons by 2045.
"For most recreational runners, the odds of racing in perfect conditions are already slim, and for elite athletes chasing records, rising temperatures have made record-breaking runs in some races nearly impossible", says the study.
The study puts some examples: recent marathons in Berlin, Tokyo, and London marathons experienced temperatures exceeding 20°C, much higher than optimal for elite runners. Tokyo will suffer the sharpest decline in the next 20 years. But this is a reality now: Sebastian Coe, World Athletics president, proposed moving endurance events like marathons to different times of the year to protect athletes from unsafe conditions.
World records in marathon were last broke by Kelvin Kiptum in Chicago in 2023 and Ruth Chepngetich in Chicago in 2024 (although Chepngetich got a three year ban due to doping, her record will not be taken). Many experts attribute the recent improvements in time records to show technology, but temperature remains one of the key conditions for the performance of athletes, increasing the risk of dehydration.
