8% chance, 100% faith: Real Madrid still dreams of a comeback at the Bernabéu

An 8% chance. That is the sum that Opta analyst gives Real Madrid of defeating Arsenal tomorrow with at least 3 goals and qualifyinging for the Champions League semi-finals, after the heavy 3-0 defeat last Tuesday at the Emirates Stadium.

After doing thousands of simulations, Real Madrid gets the upper hand in the overall match result (a 54.8% chance of victory at the Santiago Bernabéu). However, Ancelotti's squad needs to overcome a 3-goal margin, so the result needs to be 4-0, or 3-0 and then hope to get lucky in penalties. A 1-0 or even a 2-0 would be enough for Mikel Arteta, who will likely play a more defensive game, knowing that they have only conceded 0.55 goals per game in the competition so far.

Real Madrid dreams of another magical comeback

Everyone, from the club and outside of it, know that the Real Madrid has a history of fighting back at their stadium. "At the Bernabéu special things happen for them", said Declan Rice, who scored two free-kicks last week. They won the 2022 Champions League by coming back in the last minutes against Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, and Chelsea.

However, their only precedent of overcoming a 3-goal deficit at the European Cup was in 1975-76 against Tottenham Hotspur, responding a 4-0 with a 5-1 at the Bernabéu. In recent times, only four times a team has managed to fight back from 3 goals or more from the first leg in the second leg at Champions League: Deportivo La Coruña vs. Milan in 2004, Barcelona vs. PSG in 2017, Roma vs. Barcelona in 2018, and Liverpool vs. Barcelona in 2019.

In the recent days and probably in the coming hours, Real Madrid players have shared messages to encourage the team to fight back on Wednesday's game... and make their fans believe that a comeback is possible. But the team will need to improve drastically the level they have maintained this season, with Vinícius Jr., Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo scoring much less than the previous year, and Kylian Mbappé having some difficulties adjusting to the team.